Classification and reduction of pilot error

Human error is a primary or contributing factor in about two-thirds of commercial aviation accidents worldwide. With the ultimate goal of reducing pilot error accidents, this contract effort is aimed at understanding the factors underlying error events and reducing the probability of certain types of errors by modifying underlying factors such as flight deck design and procedures. A review of the literature relevant to error classification was conducted. Classification includes categorizing types of errors, the information processing mechanisms and factors underlying them, and identifying factor-mechanism-error relationships. The classification scheme developed by Jens Rasmussen was adopted because it provided a comprehensive yet basic error classification shell or structure that could easily accommodate addition of details on domain-specific factors. For these purposes, factors specific to the aviation environment were incorporated. Hypotheses concerning the relationship of a small number of underlying factors, information processing mechanisms, and error types types identified in the classification scheme were formulated. ASRS data were reviewed and a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate and quantify the hypotheses

Chemistry in a gravitationally unstable protoplanetary disc

Until now, axisymmetric, alpha-disc models have been adopted for calculations of the chemical composition of protoplanetary discs. While this approach is reasonable for many discs, it is not appropriate when self-gravity is important. In this case, spiral waves and shocks cause temperature and density variations that affect the chemistry. We have adopted a dynamical model of a solar-mass star surrounded by a massive (0.39 Msun), self-gravitating disc, similar to those that may be found around Class 0 and early Class I protostars, in a study of disc chemistry. We find that for each of a number of species, e.g. H2O, adsorption and desorption dominate the changes in the gas-phase fractional abundance; because the desorption rates are very sensitive to temperature, maps of the emissions from such species should reveal the locations of shocks of varying strengths. The gas-phase fractional abundances of some other species, e.g. CS, are also affected by gas-phase reactions, particularly in warm shocked regions. We conclude that the dynamics of massive discs have a strong impact on how they appear when imaged in the emission lines of various molecular species.Comment: 10 figures and 3 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

The fragmentation of protostellar discs: the Hill criterion for spiral arms

We present a new framework to explain the link between cooling and fragmentation in gravitationally unstable protostellar discs. This framework consists of a simple model for the formation of spiral arms, as well as a criterion, based on the Hill radius, to determine if a spiral arm will fragment. This detailed model of fragmentation is based on the results of numerical simulations of marginally stable protostellar discs, including those found in the literature, as well as our new suite of 3-D radiation hydrodynamics simulations of an irradiated, optically-thick protostellar disc surrounding an A star. Our set of simulations probes the transition to fragmentation through a scaling of the physical opacity. This model allows us to directly calculate the critical cooling time of Gammie (2001), with results that are consistent with those found from numerical experiment. We demonstrate how this model can be used to predict fragmentation in irradiated protostellar discs. These numerical simulations, as well as the model that they motivate, provide strong support for the hypothesis that gravitational instability is responsible for creating systems with giant planets on wide orbits.Comment: 11 page, 10 figures, submitted to MNRA

On the accuracy of solving confluent Prony systems

In this paper we consider several nonlinear systems of algebraic equations which can be called "Prony-type". These systems arise in various reconstruction problems in several branches of theoretical and applied mathematics, such as frequency estimation and nonlinear Fourier inversion. Consequently, the question of stability of solution with respect to errors in the right-hand side becomes critical for the success of any particular application. We investigate the question of "maximal possible accuracy" of solving Prony-type systems, putting stress on the "local" behavior which approximates situations with low absolute measurement error. The accuracy estimates are formulated in very simple geometric terms, shedding some light on the structure of the problem. Numerical tests suggest that "global" solution techniques such as Prony's algorithm and ESPRIT method are suboptimal when compared to this theoretical "best local" behavior

3D Radiative Hydrodynamics for Disk Stability Simulations: A Proposed Testing Standard and New Results

Recent three-dimensional radiative hydrodynamics simulations of protoplanetary disks report disparate disk behaviors, and these differences involve the importance of convection to disk cooling, the dependence of disk cooling on metallicity, and the stability of disks against fragmentation and clump formation. To guarantee trustworthy results, a radiative physics algorithm must demonstrate the capability to handle both the high and low optical depth regimes. We develop a test suite that can be used to demonstrate an algorithm's ability to relax to known analytic flux and temperature distributions, to follow a contracting slab, and to inhibit or permit convection appropriately. We then show that the radiative algorithm employed by Meji\'a (2004) and Boley et al. (2006) and the algorithm employed by Cai et al. (2006) and Cai et al. (2007, in prep.) pass these tests with reasonable accuracy. In addition, we discuss a new algorithm that couples flux-limited diffusion with vertical rays, we apply the test suite, and we discuss the results of evolving the Boley et al. (2006) disk with this new routine. Although the outcome is significantly different in detail with the new algorithm, we obtain the same qualitative answers. Our disk does not cool fast due to convection, and it is stable to fragmentation. We find an effective $\alpha\approx 10^{-2}$. In addition, transport is dominated by low-order modes.Comment: Submitted to Ap

Simulated Observations of Young Gravitationally Unstable Protoplanetary Discs

The formation and earliest stages of protoplanetary discs remain poorly constrained by observations. ALMA will soon revolutionise this field. Therefore, it is important to provide predictions which will be valuable for the interpretation of future high sensitivity and high angular resolution observations. Here we present simulated ALMA observations based on radiative transfer modelling of a relatively massive (0.39 M_solar) self-gravitating disc embedded in a 10 M_solar dense core, with structure similar to the pre-stellar core L1544. We focus on simple species and conclude that C17O 3-2, HCO+ 3-2, OCS 26-25 and H2CO 404-303 lines can be used to probe the disc structure and kinematics at all scales.Comment: 12 pages, 15 figures, Accepted by MNRA

Numerical determination of the material properties of porous dust cakes

The formation of planetesimals requires the growth of dust particles through collisions. Micron-sized particles must grow by many orders of magnitude in mass. In order to understand and model the processes during this growth, the mechanical properties, and the interaction cross sections of aggregates with surrounding gas must be well understood. Recent advances in experimental (laboratory) studies now provide the background for pushing numerical aggregate models onto a new level. We present the calibration of a previously tested model of aggregate dynamics. We use plastic deformation of surface asperities as the physical model to bring critical velocities for sticking into accordance with experimental results. The modified code is then used to compute compression strength and the velocity of sound in the aggregate at different densities. We compare these predictions with experimental results and conclude that the new code is capable of studying the properties of small aggregates.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&